By Tim Binnall
An intriguing new statistical study seemingly strikes a significant blow to the longstanding theory that the Loch Ness Monster could be a giant European eel. For decades, the proverbial 'eel hypothesis' has been seen as the most likely explanation for the mysterious creature that bewildered witnesses occasionally spot at the iconic Scottish site. The theory was bolstered by a 2019 environmental DNA study which found that the creatures were particularly plentiful in Loch Ness. However, a newly published paper from data analyst Floe Foxon suggests that the likelihood of Nessie being a giant eel is actually shockingly low.
The fairly straightforward study postulates that Loch Ness has a breeding population of around 8,000 eels and that the creatures generally grow to a length of around two to two-and-a-half feet long. Taking those two factors into account, Foxon argues that there is a mere 1 in 50,000 chance that an eel measuring around one meter (3.2 feet) would emerge "over the course of a few generations." To that end, he observes that a three-foot-long 'Nessie' is "not quite the 'monster' postulated by legend and lore. Taking the concept further, Faxon indicates that the chances of a 20-foot-long eel existing in Loch Ness is "essentially zero."
Based on his analysis, Foxon posits that "large eels may account for some eyewitness sightings of large, animate objects rising to the loch surface," the creatures are an unlikely explanation for "extraordinarily large animals" said to be spotted by some witnesses. In those instances, he theorizes that the 'Nessie' in question could be waves or "the occasional stray mammal" among other prosaic possibilities. Ultimately, Foxon mused that, when it comes to the Loch Ness Monster, "if it’s real, it could be an eel, but not a very large one." What's your take on this new study and does it change your mind about what Nessie might be? Share your thoughts with us at the C2C Facebook page.