Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe suggested a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, he uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras, or "turnings," that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. Howe joined Ian Punnett (Twitter) to discuss the last of these eras, the fourth turning, which he describes as a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.
"The last time we wrote about this was back in 1997... at that time the fourth turning was still about a decade away," Howe explained. We are now in the middle of the fourth turning and it turns out Howe and co-author William Strauss accurately predicted this cycle of history. According to Howe, they had forecast the U.S. would experience a financial crash in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century which happened with the 2008 financial global crisis. There was a decade of lost median income growth for American households, he added. Several of the scenarios about how we would descend into the fourth turning also have occurred, including a pandemic, Russia invading a former Soviet state, and states refusing to abide by federal law.
We will go through a period of crisis before emerging into the first turning period. "It will feel like a golden age for those who lived through the climax of the fourth turning," Howe suggested. The rhythms of American history contain sweeping eras of civic reconstruction often in a time of national urgency, he continued, pointing out how our republic completely reinvents itself every 80 to 100 years. There are periods of awakening as well as confrontation of a society that is applying too much order, he added. In the fourth turning, society is no longer supplying any order and the rising generation wants more order, Howe disclosed. This will happen in the next ten or so years. "What feeds the direction of history is these social moods which themselves are governed by these generational transformations," Howe revealed.
Maui Wildfire Update
In the first hour, award-winning writer Robert Kerbeck reported on the recent wildfires that burned through the Hawaiian island of Maui, killing dozens of people and laying waste to the historic town of Lahaina. "I know Lahaina the town quite well, I've been there 20 times, 30 times... all of the homes are wood, all of the homes are close together," Kerbeck said, noting how fast a fire driven by superheated winds would have spread through that town. Kerbeck resides in Malibu, where there has been an average of two fires every decade since 1929, and suggested communities that are not used to fires are not prepared for them. He recommended creating a minimum buffer by removing anything flammable from within five feet of one's house. "It's not complicated and it's not expensive for you to take some simple steps... because once it comes it's too late," Kerbeck warned.