In a chilling prelude to the COVID pandemic, Art spoke with (the late) practicing internist Dr. Gary Ridenour about why he believed the avian flu represented the greatest health threat in history. The (then) current strain of avian flu kills about 60% of the people who contract it in as little as eight hours, Ridenour said. In order for it to become a pandemic, he explained, the virus must mutate down to a less lethal but far more infectious form that can be spread from one person to another. Ridenour estimates a one in three chance of an avian flu pandemic in the near future.

Though seemingly counterintuitive, Ridenour said the death rate will be highest among 20 to 40-year-olds because they have the best immune systems. This is because the avian flu harnesses the immune system to attack and dissolve the tissue in the lungs. According to health experts, this "cytokine storm" is one of the main reasons so many young and healthy people died during the 1918 flu pandemic -- an outbreak that killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people, Ridenour noted.

He estimates this time, up to one billion people could perish during the pandemic, but not solely from the virus' lethal effects. Instead, Ridenour believes many will not survive because of a disastrous infrastructure meltdown caused by the pandemic. Ridenour noted that Tamiflu and other flu treatment drugs will likely not be an effective defense against the virus. If people can stay secluded indoors for the first 8-10 days of the outbreak, he recommended, there is a good chance they will survive the first wave.

The first hour featured news and Open Lines.